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US President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, on the day he signs executive orders, at the White House in Washington, DC, March 6, 2025. — Reuters
#Logic #President #Trumps #trade #war
Trade is a trend that relies on the principle of mutual interest and proposal. The idea that my country or my interests is priority does not work. Rather, it is a great version of commercial destruction. This is a universal truth that supports the historical evidence supported.
A recent example is its profitability in globalization and global economic production and volume. We can discuss its justice, lost people, or winners, but it is well -established that it has increased the size of the global economy.
Since the launch of the global movement to create a system to grow globally, improve communication and promote globalization, the global GDP has expanded a tremendous extension. In 1970, the Global GDP was $ 3 trillion, which reached $ 110 trillion by 2024. Therefore, tariff war does not fit the framework of economic logic. The question then arises: Why President Trump, or more, in particular, why are the US system following this policy, regardless of who is in power?
The economic data of the selected indicators of the US economy can help us find answers. Let’s start with GDP growth. The post -war post -war data shows that since 1969, the annual average growth rate has dropped from 4.4 percent in 1969 to 2024 (average of 20 years) just 2.1pc. There are many reasons for this, but most experts believe that low -pure fixed investment or formation of overall capital is an important factor. Statistics show that the formation of net total capital in the US economy has dropped from 8.1pc in 1970 to 5.1pc in 2021. GDP and pure fixed capital formation data shows that with a decrease in capital formation, GDP growth has decreased. The slow rate of GDP also resulted in a low growth rate in GDP, which decreased from 4.9pc in 1953 to 1.3pc in 2024.
The slow GDP has affected the US economy and society in many ways. For example, inequality has begun to increase, and in 2024, the cost of Guinea Gatanic for the United States was 0.47. This is due to a number of factors, but the most important is the distribution of wealth, the distribution of income, growth and wages. Between 1970 and 2022, the upper class revenue increased by 78 % and the middle class increased by 60pc. In addition, the total income of the total revenue increased from 29pC to 48pC, while the middle class share was reduced from 62pc to 170 to 2022.
At the same time, the share of the highest class in the total wealth increased from 60pC to 79pc in 2016, while the middle class part was reduced from 32pc to 17pc in the same period. As a result, the middle class is shrinking, while the upper and lower classes are increasing. Statistics show that the middle class in American society was reduced to 51pc in 2023 in 1971 to 61pc.
Meanwhile, the proportion of the upper and lower classes showed an above tendency. The upper class increased from 27pC to 30pc in 1971, while the lower classes increased from 11pC in 1971 to 19pc in 2023.
The trend is still going on. The data from President Biden’s era clearly shows that wages are not increasing as much as rich companies and inflation stocks. The S&P 500 shares increased by 55.7pc and inflation increased by 21pc. Wages increased by 20PC almost. This clearly indicates that the middle and lower classes had to endure this growth.
The aforementioned facts show that we are facing a double -edged sword: growth is decreasing and inequality is increasing. It has forced policy makers to think about what to do and how to break the cycle, provides a new stimulus to prevent economic growth and increased inequality.
It had two powers: reorganizing development to increase investment or forcibly adopt steps to break the current cycle. Unfortunately, they chose the latter. President Trump fully recognized the situation and began exploiting the situation and policy choice of his benefit. As a result, President Trump’s political movement increased. He took advantage of the situation by furthering the facts, targeting the deep state and blaming China for US economic problems. People were tired of a deep state and were struggling to survive.
President Trump offered him hope that he would overthrow his economic fate and deal with the deep state, and he agreed to it. Against all the difficulties, he won the election. Gaving his success, he introduced numerous policies that aimed to please his loyalists, but lacked strong economic justification.
In the continuation of anti -China statements, he started a tariff war with China during his first presidency. He suggested that this would reduce trade deficit, affect sugar development and have many benefits for us. On the contrary, as a result, the US economy and society were significantly damaged. According to official data, total exports and imports to the United States were $ 1.5 trillion and $ 2.3 trillion, respectively. The overall trade deficit was 2 792 billion.
In 2024, exports and imports were $ 2.1 trillion and $ 3.3 trillion respectively, resulting in an increase of 1.2 trillion in the trade deficit. On the other hand, China’s exports and imports were $ 2.3 trillion and $ 1.8 trillion, respectively, and in 2017 it enjoyed the additional 9419 billion trade. In 2024, China’s exports and imports were $ 3.54 and $ 2.59 trillion, with an additional $ 949 billion.
Further data regulation reveals trade between the United States and China in 2017, worth $ 636.6 billion, resulting in the US trade deficit 5 375.2 billion. In 2024, trade with China reached 582.4 billion, causing US trade deficit to $ 295 billion.
The above data shows that despite the restrictions, China’s trade volume and surplus are increasing. China eliminated potential negative effects by increasing its trade relations, and in 2024, China contributed to trade with 150 countries. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit is increasing, which adversely affects the industry, consumers and the economy.
Instead of learning from the consequences of the tariff wars of the past, President Trump has begun a trade war with the world. It will not help us. Rather, this will increase the problems. For example, during the first two days of revenue, the stock market was cleared of $ 5 trillion.
The aforementioned talks show that trade war lacks economic rationality. President Trump launched it to appease his political base, which is due to the weaknesses of the liberal economic system, such as the unfair distribution of GDP Growth David, poor distribution models, etc. Therefore, it should focus on establishing a mechanism for a fair distribution of GDP Growth Davids, tackling the real challenges and prioritizing investment.
The United States can learn lessons from the Chinese economy and society, which flourishes due to sensible policies in these areas. Otherwise, it is feared that the trade war will create more challenges for President Trump’s base, which will potentially make him unpopular.
