The Kashmir flashpoint: A crisis rekindled amid rising tensions

#Kashmir #flashpoint #crisis #rekindled #rising #tensions

Peace and tranquility have never been the specific qualities of the Indian subcontinent. Often two alien brothers are attributed, India and Pakistan have been closed in a bitter struggle only after partition on a controversial issue: Jammu and Kashmir area.

India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru brought the Kashmir dispute to the United Nations and supported a resolution demanding a vote to determine the will of the Kashmiri people. Addressing the Indian Parliament, Nehru announced:

“The people of Kashmir are not sheep, they are not in any direction. They have their own rights. We have brought the right to self -determination for them. Whether they choose India or Pakistan is their choice.”

Despite repeating this position several times, India eventually deviated from its resolve. Subsequently, the Kashmir case has created several wars and clashes between two nuclear neighbors since 1948.

Even after the collapse of Dhaka in 1971 and the subsequent contract, several steps were initiated to create confidence: the Santa Express train service, Lahore Deal Bus, and even limited tourism and trade exchanges. During the reign of Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, significant progress was made under the framework of comprehensive dialogue. Conflicts such as Sir Creek and Sachin were resolved near the bureaucratic level. However, domestic political opposition in India, especially within the Congress party, stopped further progress.

On his historic visit to Lahore, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee announced at the Governor’s House:

“We will not allow war again.” After the Samla Agreement, the Lahore statement was viewed as a major diplomatic milestone.

Yet the Kargil dispute affected the progress. Later, during the Agra summit in July 2001, Vajpayee met with the then President of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf. The agenda included Kashmir, cross -border terrorism, and economic cooperation. However, Musharraf and the BJP collapsed with the talks regarding the records given by the hard liners opposed to the negotiations.

However, in January 2004, the two leaders met again during the SAARC Summit. In a joint statement, a comprehensive dialogue was revived, which agreed to take steps to build confidence, and included Pakistan’s assurance to prevent its area from being used for terrorism. Relationships briefly improved: Pakistani delegation visited Jammu and Srinagar, journalists conducted open street interviews at Lal Chowk and Srinagar University, and tourism resumed.

Once again, the pace was stopped in 2014 with the height of Narendra Modi. The critical architecture of peace has fallen, and removed numerous hopes.

Terrorism and Blame: Modi ideology

Under Modi, a sample came out: After every terrorist incident, Pakistan was kept rapidly with accusation. Fortunately, like Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, domestic insurgents that run by Maoists and Naxalite groups were not attributed to Pakistan.

Terrorist analysts observe a separate strategic pattern under Modi’s leadership: Orchored events designed to gain international sympathy by justifying offensive action against Pakistan.

Noteworthy attacks-Pathaknot (2016), URI (2016), and Paloma (2019)-immediately alleged against Pakistan. Recently, in April 2025, a brutal attack took place in Pahalgam, where 15 militants attacked tourists in the Basaran Valley, killing 26 people. Although some people have claimed that the killings were religiously encouraged, the victims were among the Muslims, and the Muslim locals were given the privilege to save many lives.

Within hours, India blamed Pakistan and took unilateral steps:

* India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Agreement, a bilateral agreement developed by the World Bank. However, the agreement cannot be suspended by just one party. The World Bank later made it clear that there was no unilateral suspension.

* In India, Pakistani citizens were ordered to go within 48-72 hours, causing spouses’ humanitarian crisis that separated across the borders.

* In Indian -administered Kashmir, then there was a harsh crackdown, which had widespread arrests of youths and widespread human rights concerns.

Operation Sandor: growing and reaction

India launched Operation Sandor, and organized air strikes on Bahawalpur in Punjab, Punjab. Civilian areas, including mosques and houses, were targeted in 13 civilian deaths and 37 injured, including women, children and the elderly.

Pakistan’s reaction was sharp and calculated. After the Balakot incident in 2019, the Pakistani army had strengthened its preparations. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif gave full operational independence to the armed forces.

According to The Guardian, the Pakistan Air Force established aerial domination using Chinese J10C fighter jets and health -related missile systems. Despite the occupation of India’s French Rafale jets, Israeli drones and indigenous weapons, its air force was overwhelmed. In an important directive, Pakistani pilots were ordered: “Eliminate any aircraft that violates our airspace.”

As soon as the Indian Rafales entered, Pakistan set the cyber war plans. Result: Five Indian aircraft are included in a command aircraft. The rest of the Rafale retreated and since then the Pakistani airspace has not re -entered.

In retaliation, India targeted several Pakistani bases, including Noor Khan Airbus, but Pakistan launched a second anti -strike. By April 14-16, JF -17 Thunder Jets fired hypersic missiles on India’s S -400 missile defense systems at Adampur, Jalandhar -A major military center. Bulgaria Military.com reports have been described as “precise, effective and destructive”, which has made India’s most expensive air defense system inappropriate.

Geo -Political Fallout and World reaction

India is now appealing to the UN Security Council. However, under a lot of domestic pressure and international scrutiny, with Prime Minister Modi, the unexpected capacity is in large numbers.

Key results:

1. Technical fiction was scattered: India’s military dignity was a blow. Rafael Jets and Brahmos missile reputation were reprimanded.

2. Strategic wrong calculation: Operation Sandor allowed India to attack first, but Pakistan’s response measures changed the strategic benefit.

3. Market Impact: Shares fell in the Dasalt Aviation (Rafale maker), while Chinese and Pakistani defense manufacturers saw an increase. Subsequently, Pakistan has received increasing orders for J -10C aircraft.

4. Regional dominance challenged: India’s image as the dominant force of the region has diminished.

5 International Diplomacy: The United States immediately called for a ceasefire and supported the demand for the Kashmir issue to be included in Pakistan’s future peace talks. President Trump’s office reaffirmed the stance, and India has not issued a denial.

6. Political Result: Modi’s status has weakened. Even allies and opportunists like Omar Abdullah have said that Pakistan has not only scattered India’s military myths but has also addressed global attention to Kashmir.

Nasir Baig Chagai is an experienced journalist known for deep analysis of the South Asian Geo Polytic