ECB rates could fall faster as recession risk mounts

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Frankfurt: The route to the global market encouraged by US President Donald Trump’s prices scheme has strengthened the issue of decline in the ECB rate next week and has supported arguments for ease of easing policy than the world’s second largest central bank.

Economists say the market volatility is likely to be expected to be expected by revenue, along with the results of the fluctuations in the market, so that they will be dragged at prices so much that they will be far greater than the effects of inflation by the European Union.

The next two meetings of the European Central Bank in the markets now see about two rates decreases and now see between the end of the year and the end of the three to four stages. The Eurozone benchmark, the German bond production was falling again as the block and financial softening to deal with it was a decrease in the price of markets.

Although the ECB’s policy makers are far from the consensus of what it means in the long run, the route has ensured next week’s rate closely and interest rates may be much deeper than this year, which is previously at risk of inflation without inflation.

In fact, the market turmoil is huge, a recession is now a real possibility, and the increase in growth can soon become a much bigger concern than inflation, which has been beyond the target of the ECB for the past four years.

“They have to be cut in every meeting, if only because of uncertainty,” said Frederick Docuxet of Packet Wealth Management. “There is no sign of inflation pressure in the long run.”

A fleet of influential ECB policy makers, including Pierre Sepolone, Francois Viliroe de Galahao and Yans Stornars, has demanded further relaxation of policy in the current environment, and none of the key Hawks have withdrawn.

Speaking privately, some policy makers even questioned the ECB’s projection that in addition to the prices, the EU would decrease the rate of half a percentage of points a year before its retaliation, and it argued that it would be more effective.

In fact, on Monday, oil prices were low, production was low, gold was down, gold was down and long -term inflation prices were falling, a set of market tricks that show that recession is now expected.

The European Union is – for now – to prefer negotiations over retaliation over the United States.

However, more hawkish ECB policy makers, speaking privately, argued that the central bank could not reduce the inflation of tariff measures and that the impact of its short life could be stopped.

They argue that prices mean low trade, new price chains and higher costs, all of which point to more basic inflation in the long run, as the decades before globalization.

More than deduction in rate?

The ECB has long said that deduction at the rate is its basic policy tool, but the bank also has a wide range of unconventional devices used when the route in the market is a complete melting.

The ECB will come under panic. If the bank loan is damaged, the production difference between the member states of the euro zone reaches the levels that are considered indiscriminately and restless or if there is any increase in investment grade production.

The biggest difference in the previous crises is that Trump controls the story and can end the turmoil with a pen shock or get worse.

“We are now in a severe correctional area, not melting, but it is also likely to change into a complete scale,” said ING economist Carten Bersey.

“Should this be the case, we have returned to the tools of the common crisis such as: buying bonds, titlis or LTROS in a liquidity injection, and probably a beef -up dollar exchange line.”

TLTROS, or targeted long -term refinance operations, were used in the past decade to provide cheap, multi -year funds to banks, encouraging cash to use cash to lend the original economy.

The ECB also has a standing facility with the US Federal Reserve so that banks can access the dollar if they are struggling to find funds in the market. During the pandemic disease, weekly operation was run daily.

There is no sign yet. The commercial bank sits on an additional liquidity worth 2.8 trillion euros ($ 3.07 trillion) and there was no demand on Monday in the daily liquidity tender of the ECB.

The rate is the focus of the moment, falling 25 points next week and then in market prices in June, and then one or two more by the end of the year. Finding more, Germany’s 10 -year -old bond production was 2.59 percent on Monday by 1240 GMT on 3 20 points, as the market recession costs.