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Representational image of sugar. — The News/File
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LAHORE: Recent sugarcane and sugar production data has raised significant concerns about sweetener deficiency.
The latest data shows that for the current year, sugar production has dropped below the level of last year, which has declined significantly compared to demand and the government has been forced to look for extreme measures, including imports.
According to the 15 -day data compiled by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), the total output of sugar from November 16, 2024 to 26 February 2025 was 5.37 million tonnes, compared to 6.056 million tonnes in the same season last season. It represents an 11 % reduction, a decrease of 0.686 million tonnes.
Despite the claims of both industry representatives and record sugarcane production during the 2024-25 season, sugarcane production and the recovery of sugar have been reduced in the closing crushing period compared to the previous year, though a large area of cultivation has been covered.
In advocating for export approval, the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) had previously claimed an additional amount of 2 million tonnes of sugar during the 2024-25 season. However, the reduction in production has exposed a difference between domestic supply and demand, a senior government official just a day after exporting sugar volume, especially to Afghanistan.
A keen eye on the data shows that production decline was not the same, which has a significant decrease in both the early and final stages of the crushing season. Compared to the same period last year, the most important drops were recorded in the first 1524 of December 2024 and the last fifteen days of February 2025. In the second fifteen days of December, a significant 17 % decreased. On the contrary, production decreased by 11 %, 5.0 %, and 2.0 % during the first fifteen days of January and the first fifteen days of February, indicating potential stability with weather growth.
As of February 26, the total sugarcane was crushed, 56.85 million metric tons, of which sugar production was 5.37 million tonnes. It is estimated that 10.5 million metric tons are still available for processing, it is unlikely that the production will recover in the pre -estimates after the end of this season.
On March 11, the Finance Minister estimated the total sugar production of 5.7 million tonnes for the 2024-25 season. With a car over stock of about 0. 0.766 million tonnes, the total availability of sugar for the year is 6.466 million tons. This is about 0.3 million tonnes compared to the expected demand of 7.1 million tonnes, which includes a strategic storage of 0.2 million tonnes and 0.45 million tonnes for supply chain absorption, which is essential for price stability and food protection – provided exports are less than 0.3 million tonnes.
These estimates agree with last year’s sugar consumption trends, in which sugar has been seen in the car over stock of 0.766 million tonnes, except for 6.401 million tonnes (from 1st December 2023 to 30 November 2024), except 0.377 million tonnes.
However, earlier this year, continuous sugar exports increased the imbalance in supply of supply. The data shows that the government had actively monitored the production through the Sugar Advisory Board and adjusted export exports accordingly, perhaps Pakistan would have avoided the need for recent sugar prices and the need for imports.
As of December 31, 2024, sugar production had already begun to decline. Nevertheless, the government allowed the exports to continue exports instead of suspending or slowing down the sugar delivery.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, 0.204 million tonnes of sugar was exported in January and February 2025, even suffered a decline in production. No timely action was taken by the authorities.
Historical trends further contribute to the decline in production this year. Last year, sugar production was 6.841 million metric tons, which set up a benchmark for comparison. The average production of a five -year -old has been about 6.36 million metric tons, which means that this year’s estimates are not only lower than the previous year’s data but less than the historical average. Its trend raises questions about the stability of sugar production and its implications about domestic supply and prices in the coming months. The current price route already reflects the tightening of market conditions.
Commenting on Sugar Outlook, Assistant Assistant to the Prime Minister of Industries and Production, Aaron Akhtar Khan said that the export of better sugar has been allowed for only 2023-24 season. Of the 1.3 million tonnes of surplus sugar in 2023-24, the government allowed 750,000 tonnes of export, while more than 500,000 tonnes were further increased in the season of 2024-25. He emphasized that no export of white sugar is allowed for the 2024-25 season.
However, he did not remedy why despite the recovery of low-sugar, why sugar exports continued during the crushing season of 2024-25. The unspecified situation has reduced the pure availability of sugar, which has created a balance of supply demand, which has now forced the government to consider imports.
A senior member of the PSMA remarked, “Despite the warning of various stakeholders, after a controversial decision to export sugar at the beginning of the season, diabetes prices have increased in heaven prices and it is difficult to overcome.”
Regarding the recent meeting of the Deputy Prime Minister regarding sugar prices rules, he noted, “Farmers have publicly highlighted that the sugar industry is calculating its production costs based on last week’s purchase prices. In the weight phase, poor quality stick should be deducted.
He further argued that the pricing committees should regularly regulate sugar prices, as the government did not set auxiliary prices for sugarcane, especially to intimidate farmers to implement wheat procurement issues. He pointed out that the crushing season starts at Rs 40kg of Rs 325.
The rapid rise in sugar prices during Ramadan has already put more burden on the lower income population. According to a PSMA member, exaggerated export estimates were used to manipulate prices, and policy makers were misled by manipulation data.
An internal man noted that the deputy prime minister’s pressure to start the next crushing season before normal is an indirect admission that the market is facing a shortage of supply. He emphasized the need for an active policy, which includes importing three to five million tonnes of sugar to stabilize the supply and prices.
Another senior representative of the sugar industry blamed the current crisis for mismanagement, and argued that the authorities had failed to handle whatever “sugar stock” described as “sugar stock”.
Former PSMA chairperson, Chaudhry Ashraf, said that Pakistan has been facing more than a few years, justifying exports for the past few years. However, he acknowledged that only 0.4 million tonnes of carrier was available for stock consumption in the 2024-25 season. When asked about the possibility of importing 0.3 to 0.5 million tonnes of sugar to eliminate the supply gap, it refused to make any comment.
