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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell as the market takes a significant dip in New York, US, February 25, 2020. —Reuters
#exceptionalism #trade #faltering
NEW YORK: Investors have made a condition that President Donald Trump’s policies will encourage US stocks and dollars to improve its global ages. This assumption is being examined rapidly.
Massive measures on the Trump administration’s government’s reform and trade and other policies have instead injected uncertainty, consumers and businesses are worried about the economy, and threatening the story of US immunity.
The policy uncertainty is “leading to a dynamic … where you start to see investors and business leaders and consumers by reducing things in a while.”
He added, “This is against the background that was already on the way to the US economy, except for all policy and the noise of the administration.” In addition, the country’s most benefits to the market in recent years have eliminated the country’s Migakap Tech and Growth companies have eliminated diagnostic concerns and Deep SEC is opening with problems on low -cost Chinese artificial intelligence models. In mid -December, an ETF tracking so -called ‘Magnificant Seven’ group has fallen by more than 10 % of its height.
On Wednesday, the first quarter’s income predicted above the estimated ‘Magnificant Seven’ group, NVIDIA, while the semiconductor company’s margin outlook was slightly lower than expected, in a report that was planned to fix the tone for the markets on Thursday.
The US equity and dollar, which went in 2025, were expected to overtake their foreign counterparts. However, so far this year, the US Benchmark S & P 500 has increased by just 1.0 % over the MSci Index of stock in more than 40 countries, while Greenback has decreased by January by a January top of January against a basket of its main rivals.
Some bending performance arises from the developments outside the United States, including amazing economic data in Europe and the appearance of the AI model in China, which has shook the technology sector, which has a presence in the US stock index.
However, following the recent weak indicators of consumers and businesses following the problems of domestic growth, between the Trump administration about trade and the reduction of federal workforce, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate is still concerned about the impact of strong inflation on the path.
The latest economic reports can help run a long -awaited catch -up for international assets, which has increased cheaper than its American rivals. For example, based on price earnings, the premium of S&P 500 on the MSci Index outside the United States reached its highest level in more than two decades at the end of 2024.
The worrying symbols of the US economy over the past week have been a release on Tuesday, showing that consumer confidence falls faster in 3-1/2 years in February, and a separate reading shows that consumers’ emotions have been left at the lowest level of 15 months.
A survey said on Friday that business activity sank at the lowest level in 17 months, with a activity stopped in February. “This expectation will keep the United States (economy) very well,” said Murphy and Slovist Wealth Management Senior Wealth Advisor and Market Strategic Paul Nolta.
“So if there is a mistake in it, maybe more than some prices that the United States needs to come closer to the rest of the world.” The recent weakness in US economic data has encouraged investors to promote the growing possibility of a “fear of growth,” said Charlie McCilligot, Managing Director of Cross Asset Strategy, Managing Director, Charlie McGhott, Managing Director of Cross Asset Strategy, Managing Director, Charlie McGhott, said in a note on Monday.
He said that it seems that investors are “getting their arms” to the Trump administration’s preliminary policies, and is starting to account for a more serious growth than the advice of the post -election post -election.
Other indicators can also reflect the cloudy corporate approach. A survey of the National Federation of Independent Business has planned to spend a percentage of its small business members for January within the next six months, which have fallen below the November elections.
According to Delojic, during the first two months of 2025, compared to the same year, the price of US deals and the total number of A -third has decreased by about one -third, even the administration is expected to provide a friendly regulatory environment for integration and acquisition.
BBH strategists said in a note on Tuesday, “Another month of US economic data will give US economic data a blow to the US immunity statement”, and BBH strategies said in a note on Tuesday.
Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of the Angeles Investment, said that European stock has generally started the year, with the stopping 600 index across the continent in 2025 so far by 10 %. The current corporate profit in Europe is much higher than in the United States.
Rosen said his firm has been “aggressively overweight” in the last 15 years, but in the near future, European shares have moved heavy. “Besides, there is more evidence that the strong economic performance we have seen in the United States is starting to decrease,” Rosen said.
In fact, after the elections, the US immunity trade was “a lot of crowds”, while Keith Learner, co -chief investment officer of the Trust Advisory Services, said, paving the way for at least some to start the year.
Despite the launch of skeleton for US assets, many investors cannot abandon trade. While the US economy was showing signs of weakness, many investors said that the threats of near -term recession have been reduced, while Trump’s policies can bring economic benefits at the end of the year.
Investors said that if the US economy struggles, this weakness spreads somewhere else. “If America gets cold, the rest of the world is going to get the flu,” said Nolate.
Excellent seven companies have business models, about which many investors say that economic weakness can be improved compared to other industries, which can support the US market globally. OSAAC Chief Market Strategist Phil Blackato said that the magnificent seven “stocks are not cheap … but his leadership is not questioned.”
