Will Western companies return to Russia?

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London: As Moscow and Washington discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, one of the many questions related to investors’ minds is whether to be from Russia to its neighbor on February 2022. Corporate exodus can be changed in opposition to the attack.

As long as widespread Western sanctions on Russia are in their place, it is unlikely, but should US President Donald Trump’s administration try to reduce sanctions, it may open the door for some companies that Currently return to a high growth market.

Here is a way of situation:

Who got out and how?

From McDonald’s to Mercedes -Benz, more than a thousand companies have sold Russia over the past three years, leaving existing managers by giving keys to or abandoning assets. Other people like Denon and Carlsberg occupied their assets and was forced to sell.

According to Reuters’ analysis in March 2024, the head of the Russian direct investment fund, Karel Dmitrio, says US companies have lost $ 324 billion, leaving Russia.

Companies like McDonald’s, Renault and Henkel agreed to back options when they were out.

France’s Renault allegedly sold his majority shares in Russian carmaker Ottovs in May 2022 in just one ruble, but with a six -year option to buy it back.

Some Food and Healthcare companies, including Proctor and Gamble, Pepsico and Mondeles, say they remained on humanitarian grounds to continue supplying basic goods to the Russians.

It is likely which sectors want to return first?

After the start of the Ukrainian war this week, after the US -led high -level meeting, Dmitrio said without further details that he expects several US companies to return to the second quarter in the second quarter.

The most likely to return is those who are working beyond sanctions, such as retailers and eaters, such as energy and finance.

Dmitrio said he believes that a large American oil company that has been successful in Russia will return to “some time”. Senior lawmaker Anatoli Axakov said this week that he believed and the mastercard would soon restore payment services. Both companies said their Russian suspension was in their place.

Why will companies not return?

Hundreds of Western companies, including Carlsburg and Unilever, condemned Russia’s aggression in the days and weeks of the attack, which launched a suspension of abandoning or ethical operations.

If an agreement is reached that Russia should be rewarded with the Ukrainian territory, then companies who have criticized Moscow’s threat credibility.

Which sector has limits?

Companies involved in the supply of goods, including both civilians and military applications, are bound by Western sanctions.

For example, Boeing and Airbus stopped supply of aircraft and spare parts. Other examples include semiconductor, telecommunications and electronics.

The speculation depends on whether the US Russian negotiations can ease sanctions, but no concrete suggestions have been made yet. Meanwhile, the European Union on Wednesday agreed to the 16th package of anti -Russian sanctions, including a ban on basic import of aluminum.

The sanctions are forbidden to provide financial or energy -related services to Russia and the statements of Russian officials that they expect Western companies to return like a desire.

How is the Russian market changed?

From Starbucks to Ikea and Levy, the world’s most famous brands have been replaced by Russian imitation. In Russia, more than 800 McDonald’s restaurant now operates under the brand of Wakosno and Tauka (tasty and it), owned by Alexander Gore and operates in a similar way.

Starbucks sold their business restoring Anton Pinsky and Reeper Timeti, and is now known as Stars Coffee.

Re -occupying the market can be especially difficult for car makers, as Chinese rivals have set up more than 50 % market share of more than 10 % three years ago.

It is unclear how much Russia will be willing to support the return of European carmakers at the cost of Chinese people, especially in the face of “no boundaries” between Moscow and Beijing, trade between the two nuclear powers. As

Will Western companies welcome?

Moscow has long promised that it will respond to the theft of Russian assets abroad, and has seized companies in Russia through presidential orders and courts.

Russia currently controls a handful of Western companies through the guise of “temporary management” and this year is accelerating visits to foreign -owned companies’ assets.

Most companies exiting Russia were forced to sell on a large exemption. It may take time for investors to persuade their feet back to the Russian market.