Stock market outlook remains upbeat

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KARACHI: The stock market approach is encouraging for next week, which is expected to lead to a recent ending trade agreement between Pakistan and the United States, which includes cooperation in the development of Pakistan’s unused oil reserves.

According to a research report by AKD Securities Limited, the KSE -100 index is expected to continue its trend in the coming weeks, which is driven by progress in resolving the upcoming corporate income announcements and circular debt problem.

AKD Securities estimated to reach 165,215 points from December 2025 to 165,215 points, which, due to strong profits in the fertilizer sector, improve the equity in banking space, and improve research and production (E&P) and oil marketing companies (OMCS).

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) ended the week on a strong note, with the Benchmark’s SE -100 closing 141,035 points at a height, which took advantage of 1,828 points or 1.31 percent weekly. The index also touched a fresh intra -week height of 141,161 points. The positive pace was attributed to the announcement of a large -scale US -Pakistan trade agreement and the government’s plan to provide Rs 1.3 trillion rupees protected from commercial banks, which was expected earlier next week.

These developments gave rise to the interest of buying strong in the fields of E&P and OMC, which combined with 1,546 points in the index – 1,222 from E&PS and 324 from OMCS. The weekend rally presented the early week’s slower performance, which was abolished by uncertainty ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

Despite the performance of the sharp index, participation in the market was relatively weak, the average daily volume of daily trade decreases by 11.6 % in the weekly week (Wah). The trading price is average of Rs 36 billion on average.

JS Research analyst Syed Daniel Hussein noted that after the silent start, PSX fasted rapidly in the last two sessions. The oil -related rally was promoted by low -revenue reports on Pakistani exports to the United States, which was reduced by 19 %, compared to the 29 % announced in April 2025.

Meanwhile, the MPC maintained the policy rate by 11 %, against the widespread expectations of 50 to 100 points cuts due to inflation concerns. In July, the headline inflation increased by 4.1 percent year by year, with a fading base in June, from 3.2 percent, a fading base effect.

On the Macro Front, the government reported some positive financial performance, as the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collected Rs 755 billion from the target of July 2025.

Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a reduction of $ 153 million in its foreign exchange reserves, which is now $ 14.3 billion by July 25, 2025. The rupee praised the second consecutive week, rising 0.26 % to Rs 2828282828, which continues against every US dollar. However, the cost of Rs 7.41 per unit announced earlier this year increased the cost of cost.

The performance of the sector reflected investors’ confidence in specific industries. Jute Stocks increased this advantage with a 23.9 percent increase in the weekend, followed by E&P 8.1 percent and OMCS 5.1 percent. On the contrary, the vapori and its associated industries, wool and property sectors declined by 14.3 percent, 7.3 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively.

In terms of investors’ flow, foreign investors and bank pure sellers, who were burdened with Million 4.5 million and $ 5 million, respectively. Mutual funds absorbed most of the sales pressure with a net purchase of $ 10.9 million, providing support to the market during volatility sessions.

Topline Securities analyst Nabil Aaron remarked that investors ‘maintenance of the market’s initial week -long movement is waiting for investors’ significant corporate income. However, the strong closer came when investors’ confidence was restored through US trade agreements and government liquidity announcements.

With strong macro drivers in the game, further developments are expected in focus corporate results in the coming week and further developments related to the resolution of circular loans, both of which can further advance the sentiments of investors and support the latest heights.