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Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb addresses a press conference in Islamabad on June 13, 2024. —AFP
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ISLAMABAD: The Finance Ministry has estimated a 4.2 percent increase in GDP, which has led to the help of recovery in agriculture and other sectors. Inflation is expected to remain within a range of 3.5-4.5 %.
In its July 2025 monthly economic approach, released on Monday, the Ministry of Agricultural rehabilitation is the reason for input support and increasing mechanism. “Supporting exports of health -looting products, imports of health -looting products and intermediate equipment are expected to be promoted. Stabilizing domestic demand, a stable exchange rate, stable global commodity prices, and better foreign demand are likely to increase.
It is expected that Pakistan’s economy will retain its recovery in the early 2026, which is supported by better economic basic principles and the growing confidence of investors. Large -scale manufacturing (LSM) is likely to maintain its pace in June 2025, which is driven by the private sector’s credit -off and increasing production activity.
As the end of the financial year 25, Pakistan’s economy has shown clear signs of rehabilitation and growing flexibility. It maintained the growth rate by 2.68 %, while inflation fell rapidly to 4.5 percent, which helped the low policy rate, stability in the exchange rate, and the intelligent economic administration. The current account recorded an additional $ 2.1 billion – which reflects the first annual addition in 14 years and the largest in 22 years – better external balance, strong exports and remittances and increasing foreign exchange reserves.
The fiscal deficit was 3.1 % of GDP for July 25, which reflects financial discipline and better resources management. These progress have created a Space space of financial softening to reduce market trust, currency pressure and support growth.
The ministry added, “With this pace, the fiscal year 26 begins with a new focus on sustainable and comprehensive growth. Policy priorities include continuous financial stability, increasing revenue, modernizing agriculture and industrial sectors and improving business climate and human capital growth.”
Social protection and climate flexibility will also be essential to aligning short -term economic measures with Pakistan’s long -term development goals. Accordingly, real GDP is expected to increase by 4.2 percent in fiscal year 26, as well as constant stability in prices.
During the financial year of July May 2025, agricultural credit supply rose to Rs 2,300.4 billion, up from 16.6 % to Rs 1,972.8 billion in the same period last year. Imports of agricultural machinery increased by 20 %, which reached 9 109.6 million in fiscal year.
In Kharif 2025 Season (April-June), Urea of Tech was recorded 1,251 thousand tonnes (3.4 % higher than Kharif 2024), while the DAP of Tech increased by 20.1 percent to 308 thousand tonnes. This increase is attributed to higher prices, indicating the maximum channel inventory.
The LSM sector increased the monthly monthly (MMM) growth in May 2025 and 2.3 % (YOY year) year by year. During this period, positive growth was recorded in 12 of the 22 sectors, including textiles, costumes, coke and petroleum products, beverages and pharmaceuticals.
The automobile sector performed strongly during July -June FY 2025, which increased the production of cars (40 %), trucks and buses (96.8 %), and jeep and pickups (74.6 %). During the same period, the cement departure stood at 46.2 million tonnes, which increased by 2.1 % over the previous year. Domestic cement sales declined by 3.1 %, 37 million tonnes, while exports increased by 29.5 % to 9.2 million tonnes.
Consumer price Index (CPI) is 4.5 % for the financial year 25, which is a decrease by 23.4 % during the same period last year. In June 2025, CPI inflation was recorded at 3.2 percent Yoy, while in June 2024, 12.6 percent. Based on a mother, after a decline of 0.2 % in May 2025, inflation increased by 0.2 %.
An important factor behind this moderation is a significant decline in destructive food prices, which has a decrease of 10.6 % YOY, which reduces the pressure on the overall basket of food. In addition, a group of housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel recorded a 3.3 % reduction.
On the contrary, health (12.2 %), education (10.1 %), clothing and shoes (8.9 %), restaurants and hotels (8.4 %), alcohol drinks and tobacco (5.1 %), non -proclaimed foods (4.8 %), furnishing and household goods (3.6 %), 3.6 %).
The sensitive price index (SPI) increased by 0.38 % for the week ending July 17. Of the 51 essential items supervised, 22 commodities increased, nine declined, and 20 remained stable.
Pakistan’s current account recorded an additional $ 328 million in June 2025, making the fiscal year 25 additional $ 2.11 billion – the first annual surplus in 14 years and the largest in 22 years. This is compared to a loss of 7 2.07 billion in fiscal year 2024. This improvement is due to the strong growth of workers’ remittances and exports, which reflects the dynamics and effective economic administration of the external sector more than meeting the effects of high imports.
