Tariff cuts ease mass China layoffs threat, but job market pain persists

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BEIJING: Chinese worker Liu Shengzone lost two jobs in just one month when US import rates reached triple digits in April, which forced the Guangdong lighting product factory, and then a shoe maker to reduce the output.

This week tariffs came down dramatically, but Liu has withdrawn from the factory jobs and is now returning farming in his hometown in southern China.

The 42-year-old said, “It has been extremely difficult to find a steady job this year,” which used to earn 5,000-6,000 yuan (3 693- $ 832) a month as a factory worker and is no longer a permanent source of income. “I can barely afford food.”

Following the Geneva talks last weekend, the US -China trade war has rapidly helped Beijing avoid nightmares: massive job losses that could endanger social stability.

Economic experts and policy advisers say that this year’s US tariff increased by a 145 % economic loss, and even after the Geneva talks, the job market is much higher enough to harm and slow down Chinese growth.

“It was a win for China,” a policy adviser said about the conversation. “Factories will restart operations and will not be wiped out on a large scale, which will help maintain social stability.”

But China still faces challenging the top 30 % prices of pre -existing duties.

The advisor added, “It is difficult to do business at 30 %.” Over time, it would be a burden on China’s economic growth. “

Reuters reported last week, before a meeting in Switzerland, Beijing had rapidly panicked about internal gestures that Chinese firms were struggling to avoid bankruptcy, including working industries like furniture and toys.

Now there is some relief.

Louzie, the chief economist at Soco Securities, is estimated that the number of risky jobs has dropped to less than one million before tariff reduction.

Chief Asia-Pacific economist Eliasia Garcia Hero estimated that triple digits prices could reduce employment by 6-9 million. He said that the current prices level could stimulate 4-6 million holidays.

He estimated that China’s 2025 economic growth can be reduced by 2.5 points in the most expected landscape, 1.6 points under current revenue, or if the dispute returns to the intensity of April.

“When you raise prices to such a high level, many companies decide to stop the job and send workers back home primarily,” said Garcia Hero.

He added, “At 30 %, I suspect they will say, OK, come back. Because it’s still high.” “The Chinese government may be saying, Wow, it was amazing. But I think many companies are not sure it is working.”

‘Unstable’

Government advisers say China is trying to reduce the loss of manufacturing jobs with high state investment in public -absorbing public projects and that the central bank can create new jobs to channel financial resources.

The People’s Bank of China last week unveiled a new tool to provide cheap funds for services and the care of the elderly.

“On job, the most important driver will come from a growing government investment because the enthusiasm for corporate investment has not yet increased,” said Jia Kang, founder of the China Academy of New Supply Side Economics.

He said, Beijing will try to maintain a budget deficit ratio at about 4.0 4.0 percent in March, but if a serious situation arises, no more can be rejected. “

Last month’s tariff spike is not known in the job market. A factory activity survey predicted a reduction in employment in April, but analysts believe Beijing was more concerned about the potential boom of job losses than the absolute numbers over a month.

Exporters were already surpassing their manpower to stay competitive, with the risk of turning the risks into a defensive spiral.

Another policy adviser said of employment losses, “It is difficult to give data.” “The economy is already weak and tariff war is adding to the cold on the snow, but it is just frost.”

Analysts say an important stumble of job opportunities is the unexpected potential for US President Donald Trump’s prices policies, which is cautious to exporters.

Lee Kyang was one of a group of 20 people who were losing their jobs in a company that worked as a mediator, exported pneumatic cylinders, used in industrial machinery and made them by other Chinese firms.

His company closed after losing US orders and in Japan, where rivals reached the US market.

Now he operates as a riding driver in the southwestern city of Chengdu and even after the US tension, there is no plan to return to the export sector.

“Trump’s policies about China can change at any time, which destabilize jobs in export industries,” said Lee. “I no longer intend to work in the export sector.”