Whisper it and it’s back: recession risk creeps onto markets’ radar

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London: Global development concerns have re -achieved the radar of financial markets as US economic data and increasing trade tensions have damaged consumer confidence and business activity.

Although the main scenario for economic experts is not the main scenario, which is primarily given to US flexibility, recent data has made investors baseless, and US President Donald Trump’s 25 % new revenue on Mexico and Canada are raising concerns about growth.

A change in mode music is manifest in markets. Oil prices have been their lowest since LCOC1, stocks from New York to Tokyo have been withdrawing from the current multi -year altitude, and since October, the two -year US treasury production has been their lowest as the bond investors increase the chances of a decrease in the near -term rate.

“One thing is essential for the economy and has confidence, which has achieved a success,” said Francois Sewari, chief investment officer of Jane Wheel Wealth Management.

“I don’t think this (recession) is a contract, but this is one of the reasons why we (US) have decided to reduce the exhibition of equity.” In January, US consumers’ confidence declined the most in 3-1/2 years, retail sales declined the most in about two years, and Monday’s American manufacturing activity data showed a major decline in new orders and employment.

“We do not think we (US) will see the recession, but we see a slight development slow,” said Joist Wan Lander, a senior investment strategy for Van Launch Campaign Investment Management in Amsterdam.

Van Leinder said he had carved American equity holdings in late January and had overweight treasures as production decreases after the decline of the economy. Highlighting the change in fate, the GDPNO model of the Atlanta Feed has been estimated at 2.8 % from +2.3 % a week ago for annual growth this quarter.

Analysts emphasized that recent US data has once faced strong imports in the form of factors such as cold weather, and Atlanta feed models. But he also notes that trade war means that focus is rapidly increasing the risk of inflation from US prices.

From March 10, China has increased the response to double the duties on Chinese goods with 10-15 % additional rates on some US imports. Europe is also in the firing line for high US prices, and the trade viable auto stock declined by 4.0 percent on Tuesday following the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, where many cars have been manufactured for the US market. Morgan Stanley estimates that new US revenue about China, Mexico and Canada can shake 0.7-1.1 percent points in forthcoming circles, reaching Canada’s growth 2.2 to 2.8 percent points, and can push Mexico into recession.

Canada’s Chamber of Commerce CEO, Kandi Lan, has warned that the US tariff policy is forcing Canada and the United States to “recession, job losses and economic catastrophe.” SEB economist Marx Wuden said in a note, “Time to add a new word to the dictionary, ‘Trumpssis’.

Pressure of deduction in rate

On Tuesday, Canadian dollars and Mexico Peso briefly targeted a month’s earnings. In particular, the dollar, which generally benefits from commercial stress, has weakened with the weight of US growth problems.

Some people believe that the US economy can pose a threat to slow growth and a disturbing compound of inflation. Analysts said the trade war globally puts pressure on central banks to maintain a decrease in rates to reduce growth. When the figures were strong, only one kit vs. the end of the year in mid -January, traders are now setting pricing on 75 basis in US rates.

After ending its largest monthly decline from late 2023 to February, the 10 -year -old American Treasury is watching 4.0 %. “Bond market is moving towards soft patch and perhaps recession prices,” said George Lagarias, chief economist, Forvis Mazar.

The European Central Bank has been instructed to reduce the rates once again on Thursday, and Morgan Stanley said it is expected to be expected to weaken economic data and inflation in April. Even if US economic data improves, analysts say that cloudy theory is a reason to be cautious on equity.

A Goldman Sex note said that the Hajj funds, which have eliminated global equality, are fleeing rapidly and have been put on the wages that stock will be reduced. The note states that consumers’ discretionary stock, economic bells and purchase power indicators for excellent products of buyers were the worst -performing US sector last month.