Global wheat import demand dented by local output, economic woes

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Singapore/Cairo: Global wheat imports are likely to reduce economic growth in low buyers this year, buying grains to prevent a strong greenback and high local grain production, leading the world’s inventory in a few years in nine years. Despite the price pressure.

The purchase of high importers can gradually put a cap in grain prices by addressing these concerns, which will prevent the unpleasant weather in the Black Sea region, the world’s largest exporting region, India and the United States. Meanwhile, the Lower Chinese Intelligence will hurt Australian farmers, who have just ended the harvest of the record crop and have begun to rely on China’s demand in recent years.

It is expected that high importer China is expected to buy less than half of the last year in the first six months of 2025, while Indonesia is likely to increase demand, which is the world’s second largest wheat buyer, And Egypt, No. 3 Buyers, Millers, Traders and Analysts said.

Traders and analysts said that the high production of sugar wheat and the return of Indonesia’s rice will restrict the shipment there, while a large crop in Iraq prevents the Middle East’s largest buyers from spreading imports. Will

“The element of a structural market that could soften long -term demand,” said Dennis Wozenisky, a Sydney Joint Bank analyst, said, like China, production in important import markets, like China, is increasing.

According to the US Agriculture Department estimates on January 22, China’s wheat production predicted a 2.6 percent increase in June 2025 compared to the previous period. The USDA has also said that imports may decrease by 37 % during this period. A year ago, 8 million metric tons, citing data from the Chinese National Grain and Isles Information Center.

“The volatile we are facing the geographical political environment at the moment, including real wars and trade wars, to increase domestic production to reduce the dependence on global supply chain, including real wars and trade wars. Are indicating. “

The declining imports are going to be tightening global reservoirs, the USDA is expected to minimize the inventory in nine years by the end of June.

Due to low growth, wheat consumption may also decrease in large buyers, which is expected to slow down in China’s economy in 2025, while Indonesia’s growth has been free. It has been extended in a short period of time.

Despite the lowest prices in international prices in 2024, foreign wheat import costs have been increased or stable as many emerging market currencies have declined against the dollar. China’s yuan has been weakened by the US China’s trade conflict and is close to the lower levels of Indonesia’s rupee and Egypt’s pounds at the Greenback.

Chinese delays

China has recently delayed imports of up to 600,000 metric tons, and traders are expected to decline in purchase in the coming months.

Shanghai -based Sitonia Consulting co -founder, Darren Fredericks, is suffering from sugar wheat demand for the next six months, adding: “2024 (Chinese) crop season was almost perfect weather, production was broken and quality There was no need for imports.

Chinese importers have booked about a million tonnes for the arrival of March, “said Rod Baker, an analyst for Australian crops. Was folded. “

Royal Asian importers are also cutting purchases. Indonesia’s rice production has begun to recover this year after the elimination of the crop last year, which will increase government production by 32.8 million tonnes, which will be 30.62 million tonnes in 2024.

This is helping to return locally made rice flour from imported wheat imported wheat. A senior executive from Indonesia’s wheat flour Producers Association said that the struggling money is also eliminating wheat purchases, which have no option to talk to the media.

“The power to buy due to strong dollars has diminished,” he said. This year the possibility of purchasing Egyptian wheat will fall this year. State grain buyers purchased 1.267 million tonnes in late December, enough to continue the country by June. However, it acquired about 250 250,000 tonnes in January.

Former Egyptian state buyer, General Authority of Supply Commons, usually bought four million to five million tonnes every year. According to Reuters review data, in 2024, Egypt imported about 14 14.7 million tonnes of wheat through state and private sector buyers.

“Egypt, a German grain trader, is suffering from serious economic problems in Egypt, and the country needs financing from Arab donors to help the purchase of wheat,” said a German grain trader. The Middle East’s major buyer Iraq said in October that it would stop wheat imports for its subsidy program as it has an additional amount of 1.5 million tonnes of crop from the bumper crop.