Saudi Arabia signals tougher line on Israel ties as MBS’s US visit approaches

#Saudi #Arabia #signals #tougher #line #Israel #ties #MBSs #visit #approaches

US President Donald Trump has been talking up the possibility of Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize relations with Israel, but that is unlikely when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House this month.

The establishment of diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia after decades of enmity could shake up the political and security landscape in the Middle East, potentially strengthening US influence in the region.

Trump said last month that he hoped Saudi Arabia would “very soon” join other Muslim countries that signed the 2020 Abraham Accords normalizing relations with Israel.

But Riyadh has signaled to Washington through diplomatic channels that its position has not changed: It will only sign up if there is an agreement on a roadmap with a Palestinian state, two Gulf sources told Reuters.

He said the intention is to avoid diplomatic misses and ensure alignment of Saudi and US positions before any public statements. One said it was intended to avoid any confusion on or after the White House talks on November 18.

The crown prince, widely known as MBS, is “unlikely to present any potential relationship without at least a credible path to a Palestinian state in the near future,” said Jonathan Pennikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer in the Middle East.

MBS is likely to try to use his influence with Trump to “get a more clear and vocal buy-in for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state,” said the former president, who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

Trump’s Encouraging Comments on Abraham Accords

Next week’s visit is Washington’s first crown prince since the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, an MBS critic whose killing at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul sparked global outrage. MBS denied direct involvement.

The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco have already normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and Trump has said he expects to extend the accords soon.

“We have a lot of people joining the Ibrahim agreements now, and hopefully we’ll get Saudi Arabia very soon,” he said on Nov. 5, without offering a timeline.

In a televised interview broadcast on October 17, he said, “I hope to see Saudi Arabia go in, and I hope to see others go in. I think when Saudi Arabia goes in, everybody goes in.”

But the agreement signed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco left the issue of a Palestinian state behind.

Both Gulf sources said Riyadh had signaled to Washington that any move to recognize Israel should be part of a new framework, not an extension of any agreement.

For Saudi Arabia — the birthplace of Islam and custodian of its two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina — recognizing Israel would be more than just a diplomatic milestone. This is a deeply sensitive national security issue tied to resolving one of the region’s oldest and most complex conflicts.

Such a step would be difficult to take when, despite a fragile ceasefire in the conflict following the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel, mistrust of Israel remains high over the scale of its military offensive.

Saudi Foreign Ministry official Minal Radwan has called for a clear, time-bound Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the deployment of an international security force, and the empowerment and return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.

He said that these steps are necessary for the establishment of a Palestinian state. For the condition of regional integration and the implementation of the two-state solution.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly opposed to a Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia sees no immediate prospect of meeting Trump’s demand that he normalize ties with Israel, the sources told Reuters.

Saudi officials say progress on that front depends on concessions, and neither Washington nor Israel is currently willing to make them.

Trump and the Crown Prince prepare to seal a defense deal

Saudi officials plan to steer the Trump-MBS meeting toward defense cooperation and investment, wary that the politically charged normalization of ties with Israel could overshadow that agenda.

The meeting is expected to seal a major defense deal that would define the scope of US military protection for the de facto ruler of the world’s top oil exporter and cement America’s military footprint in the Gulf.

The potential deal, however, has been scaled back.

Two other Gulf sources and three Western diplomats said the defense deal falls short of the full, congressional deal Riyadh once sought in exchange for long-declared ties with Israel.

The agreement, which builds on an arrangement with Qatar that was established by an executive order in September, expands cooperation to include advanced technology and defense.

Riyadh, according to two Gulf sources, pushed the provisions to allow future US administrations to push the deal into a full agreement — which is at risk of being overturned by future presidents.

“It’s not the deal they want. They can’t see it as perfect, but it’s a stepping stone (to a full deal),” said David Mikowski, a fellow at the Washington Institute.

Gulf sources and Western diplomats said the defense deal, normalizing relations with Israel and the Palestinian state, has created a complicated negotiating equation, forcing Riyadh and Washington to push for a limited defense deal in the absence of progress on the other two tracks.

This compromise, he says, could eventually evolve into a full agreement if normal progress is made.

Since the developments in Gaza since October 7, the Saudi-American negotiations have undergone a fundamental change in atmosphere and context. “

He said the direct link between normalizing relations with Israel and the Palestinian state remains, but Riyadh now wants to address Saudi national security requirements separately.

“The Saudi position is clear: meeting the state’s national security demands will help shape its broader stance on regional issues, including solutions to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,” he said.

There is a threat from Iran

Given the regional calculus and political constraints in Washington, a NATO-style defense deal appears a remote possibility.

Iran, once the biggest threat to Riyadh’s drive to get the U.S. to abide by its guarantees, has been strategically weakened by Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military infrastructure over the past year.

Tehran’s proxies – the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen – also suffered heavy blows.

With pressure on Iran to ease up, the deal still needs two-thirds congressional approval, especially in the absence of normalcy with Israel.

Both Gulf sources said such a deal would likely come with conditions, including Saudi Arabia’s growing economic and technology ties with China, complicating Riyadh’s drive to balance strategic sovereignty with US security guarantees.

Sources said the current deal would expand joint military exercises, deepen cooperation between U.S. and Saudi defense firms, and include safeguards to limit Riyadh’s military-industrial ties with China.

An even faster track would include U.S. arms sales to the kingdom, bypassing the delays and political obstacles that have stalled previous deals.