Pakistan is gasping for breath, again | Political Economy

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Moke came down from the chimney-pots, forming a soft black drizzle, with flakes of soot in it, like snowflakes born entirely—mourning, one might imagine, for the death of the sun.

This haunting image of Charles Dickens’ Black House describes London during the Industrial Revolution. This can easily describe the metropolitan cities of Pakistan in autumn where as the leaves fall, so does the air quality.

Over the years, this has been the fate of all major cities. In October and November, the air is thick with toxins, hospital patients cough up their lungs and there is a nationwide uproar over smog. When spring arrives, the fog lifts somewhat and the nation slips into collective amnesia. It’s a script on repeat, except that with each passing year, the characters get weaker and the writers are less interested in rewriting their feats than delivering the show.

For a full decade now, Lahore has consistently topped the list for worst air quality, surpassing all other cities in Pakistan, and, some days, the world. If air pollution felt like a Lahore problem, last year, Multan, the largest city in the southern part of the province, brought things closer.

An Air Quality Index (AQI) of 300 or higher declares an effective value. In November 2024, Lahore and Multan reported over 2,000. Multan’s air quality did not deteriorate suddenly. It was declining all along but until last year, the city had no air quality monitors. Even Islamabad, once known for clean air, has been engulfed in a blanket of toxic air.

The originality

Every winter, South Asia welcomes a blanket of heavy pollution. This is due to the inversion of temperature during winter, which sweeps emissions, dust and smoke into the atmosphere. Punjab is the worst affected due to environmentally harmful practices associated with sectoral emissions from transport, industry and crop and waste burning.

Although polluted air from India has also contributed to poor air quality, the transport sector is now considered the largest contributor to hazardous emissions in the province. Moreover, crop waste is burnt everywhere. Although the government has tried to discourage these practices, enforcement has been weak. The same can be said about other major emissions contributors, namely industries and power.

Tool

Smog is more than just an eyesore. It is associated with several health risks, from respiratory diseases such as asthma and bronchitis to cardiovascular diseases, including stroke. When breathing air is toxic, it reduces people’s life expectancy. According to the University of Chicago’s Air Quality Life Index, PM 2.5 particulate air pollution has reduced the life expectancy of an average Pakistani resident by 3.9 years. For Pakistan’s most polluted cities—Lahore, Sheikhupura, Kasur and Peshawar—air pollution reduces residents’ life expectancy.

Smog has also burdened the health system more than ever before. Policymakers are also concerned about the economic harms associated with smog – business closures, transportation disruptions and reduced labor productivity. According to the health department, in October and November last year, hospitals and clinics in Punjab received nearly two million patients with respiratory problems and eye irritation due to smog. Hospitals had to set up special counters to handle the influx. Thousands of patients were admitted in Lahore alone on a single day.

Policy and Implementation

Historically, Pakistan has taken a reactive rather than a proactive approach to disasters such as floods and smog.

Last year, cloud seeding was attempted. This year, anti-SMOG machines are spraying mist into the air to settle pollutants. But a 2023 Chinese study, conducted by the European Geosciences Unit, found that such errant cannons could actually worsen air quality. Such responses are not just ineffective, they are actively harmful. They divert attention and resources from real solutions such as emissions regulations, clean energy transitions and public transportation improvements. Meanwhile, the government closes schools and bans outdoor activity during pollution peaks. These are exposure mitigation measures, not pollution control strategies.

To its credit, the government has also introduced some structural reforms such as the adoption of zigzag kilns to reduce industrial emissions. The drive to check vehicle emissions and the installation of 100 air quality monitors across the province also deserve praise. Last year, the government also published the Smog Abatement Roadmap (2024–2025) and the Punjab Clean Air Action Policy. Its continued failure to control smog therefore reflects a lack of ideas, but rather a lack of evidence-based interventions and follow-up.

There is still hope

Although the situation seems dire, there are several cases around the world where polluted cities have managed to fight their smog.

Lessons from London

In the mid-19th century, after the Industrial Revolution, smog became a common sight in major British cities during the winter. In the cold December of 1952, London was covered in a thick layer of smog that lasted for five days. Smog was caused by large amounts of sulfur dioxide and smoke in the air, produced by the burning of coal in fireworks, power plants, and industrial furnaces. More than 10,000 people died due to this smog. In 1956, Parliament passed the Clean Air Act, legislating for measures to reduce emissions of pollutants and move towards cleaner fuels.

So, smog is not a recent phenomenon. It can be fatal. And it’s the other way around. Today, London has an AQI of less than 20.

Beijing’s transformation

A decade ago, Beijing was notorious for its smog problem. The case was so severe that in 2013, it inspired the term “air-pocalypse”. The Guardian described the experiment as “an exercise in life on an uncivilized planet”. For context, Beijing’s peak AQI in 2013 was a third of the peak reported from Lahore and Multan the previous year.

The following year, Beijing announced a five-year plan to reduce air pollution. These include tightening emissions standards, limiting car ownership, encouraging electric vehicles and increasing motorcycle sharing. It also limited the use of coal, improved public corridors and increased green spaces. Funding for air quality improvement increased sixfold in five years. Local authorities introduced a city-wide license plate lottery for new fossil fuel cars, making it easier to acquire plates for electric vehicles, and encouraging a shift to cleaner transport.

Fast forward to 2024 and while other countries in the region have seen dramatic increases in smog levels, Beijing’s particle pollution has dropped by 60 percent.

The way forward

First and foremost, Pakistan must recognize that its smog problem is a national emergency. The country needs to act quickly. Like all emergencies, this calls for a coordinated approach with collaboration between layers of government across the country. It also calls for evidence-based action. Smog needs to be treated as an anomaly and evidence of year-round governance failures. This means moving short-term visible fixes into sustainable, systemic fixes.

In the short term, public health should be the priority. Schools and non-essential workplaces in all major cities should be temporarily remoted to minimize travel and reduce vehicular emissions. Restrictions on high-emission vehicles and polluting industries are also necessary to reduce pollution levels. Public awareness campaigns should be conducted using accessible media such as text messages and call-viewing ringtones, encouraging people to stay indoors and wear N95 or K95 masks. Meanwhile, citizens should keep the conversation and struggle around smog alive and let no one get complacent, even when the skies are clear.

In the coming months, citizens need more government and stronger accountability for up-to-date air quality data. Both coverage and density of air quality monitors need to be expanded. A comprehensive data regime is essential not only for transparency, but also for assessing sources, enforcing accountability and guiding targeted interventions. Construction sites should be required to implement dust suppression measures. Crop burning should be addressed not only through punishment, but also through incentives for viable, affordable alternatives such as subsidized pleasant seeders and sustainable, climate-friendly farming practices. Physicians should be trained to recognize and advise on health issues associated with SMOG. For new vehicles, emission standards should be defined and strictly enforced, with incentives to replace high-emission vehicles.

In the long run, reducing emissions is paramount. Expanding public transport networks, such as buses and developing cycling infrastructure, will encourage travel with lower per capita emissions. Shifting to clean energy sources like solar power will help reduce dependence on coal and other polluting fuels. Vehicle emission standards should evolve with stricter limits and incentives for electric vehicles.

Political will will be required for progress. The current incentive structure rewards non-performance and performance indicators. This has to be changed. Air pollution does not stop at regional boundaries. Neither should accountability. When it comes to clean air, no one is safe until everyone is safe.

Fez Gilani is an Assistant Consultant for Climate Policy and Finance at Oxford Policy Management

Amna Asghar is a development professional working on climate resilience, institutional capacity and socio-economic inclusion.