Unemployment, voter mistrust threaten Indian PM’s coalition in Bihar polls

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PATNA: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition faces a tough regional election in Bihar next month, as youth unemployment and public distrust of voter rolls threaten to test the stability of his coalition, which relies heavily on regional allies.

One of India’s poorest and most populous states, Bihar, with more than 130 million inhabitants, has long played an important role in shaping national politics. Its chief minister Nitish Kumar – known for switching between Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition – is currently a key figure in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The eastern state is part of India’s politically decisive Hindi heartland, where the outcome of the Bihar assembly elections could have an impact ahead of the upcoming elections in Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Any fissures within the NDA in Bihar could weaken Modi’s broader coalition, which currently holds 293 of the 543 seats in the national parliament and maintains a solid foothold mainly in Assam.

Women are an important voting block in a tight poll

The Vote Vibe agency said its polls in Bihar showed the NDA leading by 1.6 percentage points over the opposition alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress Party, till October 8.

“The election could swing either way,” the agency said in its outlook, adding that a slight part of the NDA was due to its recent programs, such as cash transfers to 12.1 million women under self-employment subsidies totaling 121 billion rupees ($1.37 billion).

Nedita Jha, an activist based in Bihar’s state capital Patna, said women would form a strong voting bloc in the polls as men usually leave Bihar in search of jobs in economic hubs like Mumbai and New Delhi and do not return for all the votes.

“Women make decisions because men are not here,” she said. “They talk about the opposition promising more money when they come to power, and my understanding is that they trust the opposition more”.

Some Bihar voters are also upset over the revision of the state electoral roll. In one case, 85-year-old Jitni Devi said she had been removed from the roll and could no longer vote or access her pension.

“They have pronounced me dead,” he told Reuters. “People in my village tease me as a dead woman, and when I go there to get my money back, the bank officials turn me away.”

The State Election Commission did not respond to questions about Devi’s case. The Federal Election Commission has previously said that all complaints are thoroughly investigated.

Young voters are angry about unemployment

Employment is another electoral issue of concern among young voters in Bihar, despite the declining unemployment rate.

Official figures show 9.9% of 15-29-year-olds were unemployed in the 2023–24 financial year, down significantly from 30.9% in 2018–19, but concerns remain.

“For me, I’ve seen my father going out of Bihar for work, so jobs matter the most,” said Bablu Kumar, 25, who plans to vote for the first time in November.

Jan Suraj, a new political party founded by Prashant Kishor, Modi’s former survey manager, said it aims to reset the political agenda in Bihar.

“The issues lie in unemployment, migration, rising debt, loss of agricultural income,” said party national president Atjab Singh. “There is a huge drop in Modi’s popularity”.

The opposition has promised a law guaranteeing at least one government job, if desired.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, however, said it was confident of victory.

“The NDA alliance is in a very solid position,” BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan said. “People have strong faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision”.

Voting for 243 state assembly seats will be held on November 6 and 11, and the results will be declared on November 14.