Fresh Epstein emails reopen Trump’s oldest political wound

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President Donald Trump was looking to claim victory this week after the record-long US government shutdown ended on his own terms. But almost immediately. Alas, the White House was forced to contend with a familiar bogeyman: Jeffrey Epstein.

The emails released by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday ruled out questions about Trump’s relationship with the notorious financier and how much the president knew about Epstein’s alleged abuse of girls.

Although the White House quickly dismissed the effort as a Democratic smear campaign, the headlines signaled a potential threat to Trump that could cast a shadow over the president and his Republican Party in next year’s midterm congressional elections.

Trump has faced controversies that bog down many politicians. But the Epstein story has proven to be a persistent liability that disrupts the discipline of Trump’s message and complicates his efforts to keep his coalition focused on policy rather than scandal.

Some Republicans break ranks

Many loyal Trump supporters believe the government is withholding sensitive documents about Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died by suicide in prison in 2019, that would reveal his ties to powerful public figures.

A handful of Republicans have broken ranks to join Democrats in seeking the release of a full document, which has drawn rebukes from Trump, who has called them “soft and stupid.”

“I think the hope was that it would be over and gone, and that never happened,” said Terry Sullivan, the Republican strategist who chaired Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.

“It’s an impossible problem to handle effectively,” he added. “It’s impossible to prove a negative.” If he (Trump) didn’t know anything, how do you prove it?”

PIA Corsoone, a Democratic strategist and partner at political consultancy SKDK, said the specter of Epstein could depress Republican turnout in the 2026 midterm elections if new revelations continue to emerge.

Some Trump supporters have for years floated conspiracy theories about Epstein’s clients and the circumstances of their deaths.

Although Trump has not been charged with wrongdoing involving the wealthy financier, he has faced backlash from supporters over his administration’s refusal to release all investigative files on Epstein, citing privacy concerns.

“Megabase has a way of connecting with internal problems and blowing them up,” Carusone said. “I think he’s very weak on that.”

While nine in 10 Republicans say they approve of Trump’s performance in the White House overall, only four in 10 say they approve of his handling of the Epstein files, according to a Reuters/IPSOS poll conducted in October.

The White House said it would not be distracted by the Epstein story.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said, “Democrats and the mainstream media are desperately trying to use this hoax as a distraction to talk about anything other than the Democrats being utterly defeated by President Trump in a shutdown fight. These emails prove literally nothing.”

Unity shows cracks

The president exercised near control over his party during the 43-day government shutdown. Even with this week’s Epstein emails, some prominent conservative influencers downplayed messages in which Epstein believed Trump “knew about girls.” The messages also showed Trump disapproving of his behavior and forcing Epstein out of his Mar-a-Lago social club in Florida.

Trump has repeatedly denied any knowledge of Epstein’s alleged abuse and sex-trafficking of girls.

The Republican coalition as a whole hasn’t kept around the Epstein issue, and Democrats still pose a problem for Trump.

On the same day the government reopened, a petition backed by all House Democrats and four Republicans received the final signatures needed for a vote on a bill to compel the Justice Department to release all files related to Epstein.

Top Trump aides failed to convince Rep. Lauren Bobert to remove her name from the Epstein petition, and to meet with her in the situation room, a White House space typically used to press national security matters.

Republican Representative Nancy Mays, another Trump loyalist, also did not back him in support of the request. A source familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity said that when Mace and Trump were unable to connect by phone, she wrote a message to the president describing her experience as a sexual assault survivor.

Bobbert and Mays, members of the Republican congressional conference that has shown almost complete obedience to Trump, suggested the president would have to navigate internal differences carefully to ensure the Epstein saga doesn’t fracture his party heading into the midterm elections.

After fending off days of questions from reporters, Trump broke his silence Friday night, lamenting how the Epstein case took away from his accomplishments.

“When you talk about the Epstein hacks, what happens is, you’re not talking about how well we’ve done,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “They want to waste people’s time, and some dabber Republicans like that.”

The comments came just hours after Trump announced he would ask the Justice Department to investigate Epstein’s ties to JP Morgan and prominent Democrats. U.S. Bank said it regrets its past association with Epstein, who was a client between 1998 and 2013, and did not help him commit “heinous acts.”

Democratic and Republican strategists said the past few days have illustrated the remarkable staying power of the Epstein scandal and its ability to command any news cycle.

He said the White House’s continued efforts to suppress or discredit the story had the effect of prolonging the attention it received.

“I don’t think anyone can argue that they handled it well,” said veteran Republican strategist Alex Conant, “because we’re still talking about it.”