A looming crisis in cotton research | Political Economy

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The green fields of Punjab, once the heart of Pakistan’s cotton economy, face a silent crisis. While official narratives may not acknowledge the decline in cotton research, a closer look reveals a dangerous stagnation. Traditional breeding methods are underperforming. A global race for agricultural innovation has developed and its outdated tools are ill-suited for Pakistan’s research community to excel in it.

At the heart of the crisis is the severe lack of genetic diversity in our current cotton breeding material. The widespread adoption of Bt gene technology, despite its initial promise, has led to contamination and loss of our non-BBT microbes. Scientists are now struggling to distinguish between single, double and non-transgenic varieties. Years of cross-pollination have strained the genetic lines. This genetic soup makes it nearly impossible to identify and use the basic material necessary to develop flexible new varieties. The situation is further complicated by the lack of a comprehensive, centralized database of cotton germplasm. Without this vital resource, breeders are operating in the dark, unable to assess the genetic potential of existing material. This is an important barrier to development, as it hinders the development of new species that can withstand the increasing pressures of climate change.

The challenges are beyond germs. Researchers, foot soldiers are facing immense difficulties in this war. They are operating on dilapidated infrastructure and struggling with a severe lack of funds. Many people are forced to finance their research and publications. It kills motivation and creativity. The toxic environment is pushing the most talented scientists to seek opportunities abroad, leading to a brain drain that further reduces our research capacity. The rest of the world has moved beyond basic BT and GT genes. Leading labs are now harnessing the power of modern genetic techniques to create crops that can withstand the existential threats of climate change: heat and drought.

A recent international webinar, hosted by this author, brought this disparity into sharp focus. Texas Tech University professor Dr. Hong Zhang showcased his lab’s research progress. By over-expressing just two genes, his team developed cotton varieties that produced an astonishing 133 percent more fiber under dryland conditions and nearly 81 percent more under wet conditions.

The root cause of the stagnation in cotton research is the systemic failure to support and empower our researchers. The Higher Education Commission and other funding bodies do not make it easy for public sector researchers. Those who manage to secure scholarships abroad and learn world-class techniques are discouraged from returning. Many fear that their contributions will be met with resistance or rendered irrelevant by the lack of basic infrastructure. This author can speak from experience. A postdoctoral proposal focused on gene editing to combat cotton leaf curl virus—a disease responsible for the loss of one million bales annually in Pakistan. The professor, on our internal system evaluation, was given a shocking score of 2 out of 10 for his ability to supervise. The instability experienced by the expert is the reality that most Pakistani public sector scientists have faced. Scholarships are often awarded to university professionals with limited participation in public research. The policy landscape is equally fragmented.

The country’s agricultural research and development expenditure lags behind regional peers. Over the last decade, it fell from 0.37 percent to just 0.12 percent.

The shift of cropland from cotton to sugarcane, driven by mill owners who offer subsidies to local farmers, is disrupting crop zoning and shrinking the cotton core. This not only reduces overall cotton production but also increases disease and pest pressure on other sectors. Furthermore, the introduction of unapproved public sector varieties has fueled a thriving seed mafia, due to gene patent issues and premature leakage. Farmers, lured by the promise of these new varieties, unwittingly buy low-quality seeds from unreliable sources. This leads to many other problems including poor crop stands and CLCV.

To avoid this downward spiral, we must adopt a multi-pronged approach that addresses the systemic failures plaguing the industry. The first and most important step is to re-examine and reorganize your genetic material. We need a concerted effort to identify and isolate pure non-BBT germs before they are completely eradicated. Simultaneously, it is important to establish a comprehensive, publicly accessible database of all cotton germplasm. This will provide researchers with the tools they need to carry out targeted and effective breeding programs and establish collaborations. Moreover, the current reliance on BT technology is a short-term fix with long-term consequences. Insects are developing resistance to these genes. We risk a future where all our GMO cotton is susceptible. We need to adopt a robust integrated pest management model implemented in California, which led to the certified eradication of the pink bollworm in 2018. Insects had dominated the American cotton belt since 1906. This strategy, which combines biological, cultural and chemical control with the help of the public and private sectors as well as farmers, provides a long-lasting solution rather than relying heavily on a single gene.

We are now a full-spectrum fighter against climate change. Food security is as important as border security. A scientist is therefore as valuable as a soldier. Lack of access to up-to-date training and equipment is a serious risk. The great Dr. Bajwa, a wheat researcher at the Ayub Agricultural Research Institute in the 1970s, collaborated with Dr. Norman Borlaug to lay the foundation for the Green Revolution. Today, we have many Dr. Bajwas among us, but we are not exploiting their potential. Instead of giving them the resources and respect they deserve, we are forcing them into a system where meager salaries and allowances have led some into the seed mafia, using public resources for personal gain. To reverse this decline, we need a paradigm shift. We must train and equip our public sector scientists and researchers with modern tools and techniques.

The country’s agricultural research and development expenditure lags behind regional peers. Over the last decade, it fell from 0.37 percent to just 0.12 percent. We need a better strategy for agricultural research and a focused and relentless effort to create a win-win situation for the country and its intellectual assets.

The author is a senior researcher with nearly 20 years of service in the government sector advancing agricultural research