Modi faces bellwether Bihar vote in India’s poorest state

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PATNA: Voting is underway in India’s poorest state of Bihar, where for many of its 130 million residents, there is a sense of concern.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to pressurize the economic sweet spot to curb the problem altogether.

A victory here could “boost” the BJP’s fortunes in other key states ahead of next year’s polls, say strategists.

The country’s third most populous state is roughly equal to Hindu-majority Bihar—Mexico—a bellwether.

It remains the only state in the Hindi-speaking north where Modi’s Hindu nationalist party has never ruled alone.

For housewife Rajkumari Devi, feeding her three children depends on the daily wages earned by her husband as a laborer in Muzaffarpur district.

When he finds work, he takes home about 400 to 500 Indian rupees (about $5).

“There is no stability,” said the 28-year-old, overlooking the agricultural land outside his modest one-room house.

“There have been times when he hasn’t had work for days – so we stretch the little money we have,” he added. “There is unemployment everywhere.”

Bihar ranks worst in India on poverty indicators, according to the government’s NITI AAYOG policy think tank, just ahead of countries like the Central African Republic.

Cash commitments

But it has evolved over the past decade.

According to the most recent data released last year, the share of citizens living in “multidimensional poverty” – that is deprived of health, education and quality of life – fell from just under a half in 2016 to less than a third in 2021.

In September, Modi announced $8 billion in investment plans, including rail and road upgrades, new agricultural schemes and an airport terminal.

He also unveiled an $844 million initiative to support women entrepreneurs, offering 7.5 million women cash grants of INR10,000 each.

The BJP, allied with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), faces a stiff challenge from the opposition.

At a rally in the state capital Patna on Sunday, Modi urged voters to “bless the NDA”.

Analysts say a BJP victory in Bihar could boost its momentum in opposition-held states, such as neighboring West Bengal as well as Tamil Nadu to the south.

“This is an election that will decide whether the BJP can form a government on its own,” said Pushpinder, a political analyst who uses only one name.

He said a BJP victory could “mobilize” the party elsewhere.

The election will be held in two phases on November 6 and 11. The results are due on November 14.

‘unemployed people’

The BJP’s main rival is an opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress Party.

“Time to build a new spring,” RJD leader Tejshwi Yadav said after touching down in a helicopter in Darbhanga district last week, where narrow lanes wind between mud and thatched houses.

Former BJP survey strategist Prashant Kishor has launched a party, Jan Swaraj, or “People Good Governance”.

Supporters draped him in marigold garlands as he paraded through the crowd.

“You just run or walk after a fall,” said a 25-year-old student, who goes by one name. “If he doesn’t win big this time, that’s okay.”

Pushpinder said the result is what party voters believe will help their future, saying that being “Bihari” has become a word for “unemployed people”.

Vikash Kumar, 30, left Bihar a decade ago to work in other states, but still struggles to earn a steady income.

“If companies can be set up here, people here will not die of hunger,” said the worker.

“They will make money, sit at home, be comfortable, and eat.”