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Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, December 21, 2018. — Reuters
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The Israeli airstrike has eliminated most of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and cut off its military command, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has refused to stop the fighting, even if he interferes with the United States in support of his nasty ally, “the United States interferes with the conflict.”
This has made speculation that the Iranian leadership can reach another way to pressure its enemies to the relatives. The narrow waterway on the mouth of the Persian Gulf is handle in a quarter of the world’s oil trade. So if Iran was able to refuse access to oil and gas ferry tankers in China, Europe and other major energy -use areas, it would send more and more shooting oil prices and potentially destabilize the global economy. Iran has targeted merchant ships in the past that cross the square point in the past, and even threaten to stop the stream. Israel issued an extraordinary warning a few days before launching bombing of Iran, saying that increasing tensions in the region could affect the shipping, while one of the largest oil tanker operators, Frontline Ltd. said it would be more likely to be focused on the Persian Gulf.
Where is the Strait Harmos?
The waterway connects Persia to the Gulf of India, with Iran’s north and United Arab Emirates and the United Arab Emirates in the south and the United Arab Emirates and Oman. It is about 100 miles (161 km) tall and 21 miles wide in its toughest location, with only two miles wide shipping lanes in each direction. Its deep depths potentially threatens land mines, and leaves the ground open-air-based missiles, especially from Iran-based missiles, or to interfere with patrol boats and helicopters.
Strait is essential for global oil trade. According to Bloomberg data, tankers from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iran through the Strait of 2024 made about 16.5 million barrels of raw and condensate daily. Strait liquid is also very important for natural gas, or LNG, which is a fifth of the world’s supply from diameter-passes during this period.
Can Iran really stop the Harmos Strait?
Iran will have no legal authority to order traffic through hormows, so it will need to be attained by the threat of power or power.
If its Navy tried to ban entry into the Strait, it would be likely to be a strong reaction by the US fifth fleet and other Western ships patrolling the area.
But it can cause severe obstacles without leaving the port of an Iranian warship. An option would be that Harry shipping with small, sharp patrol boats. Or it can launch drones and fire missiles towards coastal or domestic sites. This can pose a major risk for commercial ships.
Similar tactics have been successfully used by the Houthi militias in Yemen so that they can interfere with traffic through the Bob El Mandeb Strait, heading to the Arabian Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Most missiles and drones have been fired on ships after warning the owners of ships from the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel that they will be attacked if they approach the area.
In the Pacific, a US -led force is trying to protect the shipping there. According to Clarkson Research Services Limited, a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker, the number of ships traveling through the Pacific and the Gulf of Aden was about 70 70 percent in June compared to an average level of 2022 and 2023. This has forced operators to start their traffic instead of passing through the Swiss canal around the southern Africa of Africa.
Closing the Strait Harmos will rapidly affect Iran’s economy as it will prevent it from exporting its petroleum. And it will be the largest Iranian oil buyer and a key partner, China, who has used its veto power in the UN Security Council to protect Iran from Western -led sanctions or resolutions.
When has Iran affected shipping?
Iran has used harassment of ships in the Gulf for decades to register its dissatisfaction with sanctions against it, or to take advantage of conflicts.
In April 2024, a few hours before the drone and missile attacks on Israel, Iran’s Islamic revolutionary guard Corps occupied an Israeli -connected container near the Strait of Hormuz. According to the list of trade publications, Iran released the ship’s crew next month. Tehran claimed that MSc mesh had violated maritime regulations, but analysts pointed to Israeli -owned contact.
When it captured the US -bound tanker in April 2023, Iran said the ship had attacked another vessel. But the move was revealed by US authorities on the basis of sanctions violations, retaliation for Iranian crude oil to move off the coast of Malaysia.
In May 2022, Iran occupied two Greek tankers and kept them for six months, perhaps Greek and US Iranian oil officials responded to a seizure on a different ship. The cargo was eventually released and the Greek tankers were released. So, too, there was oil on a tanker, which Iran said in January “said in January,” the US said in retaliation for oil theft. “
Has Iran ever shut down the Hormuz’s stream?
Not yet. During the 1980-88 war between Iraq and Iran, Iraqi forces attacked an oil export terminal in the Kharg island northwest of the Strait, which encouraged an Iranian retaliation that would attract the United States to a conflict. After that, in which the tanker war was called, the two sides attacked 451 ships. It significantly increased the cost of insurance for tankers and helped to advance oil prices. When sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2011, it threatened to close the straw, but eventually supported it. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Naval Forces chief, Commodore Aliriza Tangsiri, said shortly before the occupation of MSc Mesh that Iran has the power to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Harmos, but not to choose.
How did the United States and allies respond to the threats of horms shipping in the past?
During the tanker war, the US Navy resorted to the Gulf of Ships. In 2019, it departed an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the region. That same year, the United States launched Operation Sentinel in response to Iran’s shipping. Ten other countries, including the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, joined the operation, which is now known as international maritime security construction. From the end of 2023, most of the focus on the safety of shipping, away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Mediterranean, the second most important waterway in the region, and the Babylon Mandeb Strait, which connects it to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Attacks of attacks on Iranian -backed Houthis entering or leaving have become more concerned than the Strait of Hormuz.
