Economic Survey FY25: Experts warn against policy shocks amid ‘fragile recovery’

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After the federal government unveiled the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, economic and industry experts emphasized the need for long-term structural reforms and warned against contradictory policy making.

His reaction came in response to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, which was exposed by Finance Minister and Revenue Mohammad Aurangzeb before the federal budget.

Addressing a Persiar on the eve of the launch of the economic survey-an important pre-budget document, Fanchin, revealed that the country’s GDP has increased by 2.7 %, with inflation increasing 4.6 % in the outgoing fiscal year.

He said that Pakistan’s economic recovery, which started after the financial year 2023, pushed the fiscal year 2024 and showed signs of stability in the financial year 2025, which shows that a change towards stability and GDP development has been identified. “For the first time, the size of the economy exceeded the Billion 400 billion, while the per capita income increased by $ 1,824,” he added.

Talking about the Geo News Special Transmission, analysts said that while key indicators like GDP growth and inflation have been improved, this benefit has been critical and permanent policy can be easily changed without continuity, strategic privileges and reform measures.

Prominent businessman Zubair Motiwala stressed that Pakistan’s economic reputation has improved and now it must invest in a strategy.

“We have created a financial place through difficult actions – something we have never had before,” he said.

“I don’t think tomorrow’s budget will be easier,” Motiwala added that issues like electricity, water shortages, and unexpected gas prices continue to contribute to local industries.

“We need to be seriously examined whether the cost of productive costs of domestic industries,” he said. “Reducing duties is not a recipe for expanding exports.”

Commenting on taxation, economist Dr. Khakin Najib recommended concessions for retailers such as digital payment systems.

He said, “Raast retailers want to be given GST privileges.

Meanwhile, Sajjad Mustafa Syed – Chairman P@Sha – highlighted the better performance of the IT sector during the year but warned against the fluctuations in the policy.

“This year we have shown progress in the IT sector … What we are asking for is a consistency in the tax policy. Any negative change can eliminate the benefits that can eliminate our benefits.”

Meanwhile, economist Ali Hassanin believed that strict reforms were very important for Pakistan as the country was facing regional competition.

Commenting on government policies, he said: “The direction is fine but we have not seen the big steps that are considered a game changer … we need to do a lot.”

Explaining the reasons behind the tax shortage, tax expert Ashfaq Tola said the biggest problem was that the agriculture sector was paying less than 1 % tax.

“The effects of the retail sector as extra profit should be between 3 % and 4 % of GDP,” he said.

Terming the agriculture sector as disappointing, Tula supported a stable exchange rate and global commodity prices to reduce inflation.

He also warned against the progress led to imports, saying that it would affect the local industry and employment and increase the pressure on local currency. He added that imports should be opened for export -based industry and imported alternatives.