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A shopkeeper uses a calculator while selling spices and grocery items along a shop in Karachi. — Reuters/File
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ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook report, has changed Pakistan’s economic growth project from 3 % to 2.6 percent for the current financial year.
The prediction has been followed by US President Donald Trump’s up to 29 % of the latest tariffs, which has led to the IMF has reduced the growth of growth for many developing economies.
However, the report states that Pakistan’s GDP growth is likely to increase by 3.6 % for the next financial year (2025-26).
Inflation in Pakistan – which has been 23.4 % in 2024 – is predicted 5.1 % for the current fiscal year, the IMF has offered to increase by 7.7 % in the next financial year.
The IMF also revised its prediction about Pakistan’s current account deficit. Now it is expected that in its first estimate, compared to 1 %, a loss will be at 0.1 % of GDP. In the nominal terms, instead of pre -predicted $ 3.7 billion, the current account difference is only $ 400 million.
For 2026, the lender expects the current account deficit to increase by 0.4 % of GDP.
According to the report, the unemployment rate is likely to be 8 % in 2025.
The IMF’s global economic approach highlighted that the prediction of growth in emerging markets and developing economies has generally weakened as a result of the US rise in recent prices.
Pakistan, along with several other Middle East and Central Asia countries, is expected to face economic pressure due to the increasing cost of trade and global financing.
The report came against Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb’s background in Washington for the World Bank Group and IMF Bihar 2025 meetings in Washington, during which the minister held several important meetings with business leaders and financial institutions.
Aurangzeb confirmed the government’s commitment to reform during a meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristina Georgia.
Meanwhile, while participating in the IMF -hosted panel discussion titled “Revenue Mobilization in the Mid -term”, Finance Cazar outlines Islamabad’s efforts to ensure that the GDPs such as agriculture, real estate, and retail are contributed to GDP.
In addition, during a meeting with the institutional investors, he also called for the recent credit rating upgrade through the country’s economic stability and Fitch, which has opened the way to return to Pakistan’s financial markets through better confidence of investors.
The revised prediction of Washington -based lenders is not only limited to Pakistan, but it includes many countries as well as global statistics.
In its report, the IMF reduced its forecast for global growth to 0.5 percent.
It states that inflation will decrease gradually in January than expected, which, in view of the effects of revenue, reaches 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, with “remarkable” revised for the United States and other modern economies.
The IMF termed the report based on progress by April 4, citing the extreme complexity and fluency of the present moment.
“We are entering a new era because the global economic system, which has been operating for the last 80 years, is being resettled,” IMF chief economist Perry Oliver Gorenchas told reporters.
“This is very important and is targeting all regions of the world. We are seeing low growth in the United States, low growth in the euro area, low growth in China, low growth in other parts of the world,” Gurinchas told Reuters.
“If we increase trade tensions between the United States and other countries, which will boost additional uncertainty, which will create additional fluctuations in the financial market, which will make the financial situation tough,” he said.
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