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They have improved significantly to strengthen important economic indicators, including low interest rates, low inflation and foreign exchange reserves. On paper, these feats reflect a symbol of economic recovery and policy effectiveness.
However, the ground truth tells a different story. The economic improvement of the people is widespread. The national economy is moving on a narrow transit between structural challenges and pockets of sectarian flexibility, which reveals a disturbing disconnection between policy success and public benefit.
In the second quarter of the current financial year (fiscal year 2024-25), the slight growth of GDP was 1.73 %, which is primarily driven by services (2.57 %) and agriculture (1.10 %). The industrial sector was contracted by 0.18 %, which exposed the country’s production capacity and the weakness of the deep roots in employment opportunities. This uneven recovery, with the failures of permanent governance, raises important questions about who actually benefit from these economic adjustments/ improvements.
The services sector emerged as an extraordinary bright location, which shows information and communication (8.45 %), finance and insurance (10.21 %) and public administration (9.10 %) strong growth. However, the extension masked severe contraction in major crops such as manufacturing (-2.86 %) and cotton (-30.7 %), maize (-15.4 %) and sugarcane (-2.3 %), which collectively decreased by 5.38 %. These figures highlight a dangerous trend.
The services of the technology -powered urban center grow, but Pakistan’s economy is deteriorating in the backbone of agriculture and industry. The reduction in imports and manufacturing outputs also dragged the wholesale and retail trade 1.13 %, which further squeezed small businesses and informal workers. Cattle, which has increased 6.51 %, provided some relief, but without structural reforms in energy, agriculture and industrial policy, this critical growth is at risk of both domestic defects and external shocks.
Against this backdrop, the recently released consumer pricing index reports for March 2025 revealed 0.89 % a month, which has increased by 0.78 % and 1.05 % respectively in urban and rural areas respectively. These data recommend relatively stability, but a deep analysis appears to be related to trends.
The category of eating and drinking drinks, which weighs the most at 34.58 % in the CPI basket, saw a rapid increase of 1.87 % nationwide, which increased destructive foods by 7.53 %. Essential goods such as tomatoes, fresh fruits and eggs recorded double -digit spikes, highlighting volatility, which causes Pakistan’s food supply chains. These fluctuations are not accidental but symbolic of systematic failures: poor agricultural planning, inadequate storage facilities and extremely critical, poorly profitable through poor governance.
The widespread gap between wholesale and retail prices, which is now 133 % dangerous for some commodities, is a harmful person of the provincial administration. In Quetta, potatoes sell more than 133 % of wholesale prices. In Karachi, onions contain 106 % markup. These differences are not merely ineligible for the market, but evidence of regulatory stroke.
Surprisingly, the chief secretaries in Punjab and Balochistan logged in to monitoring the prices three and zero times, respectively, compared to 88 logs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This negligence has allowed the middlemen to exploit consumers with immunity, and have turned basic foods into luxury equipment for millions.
The results of the National Price Monitoring Committee reveals the gap of governance, where provincial authorities have abandoned their responsibility to protect citizens from manipulation of prices, despite the constitutional mandate under the 18th Constitutional Amendment.
Pakistan’s economic contradictions arise from a deep rule crisis. The federal government’s dependence on the provincial administration to control prices has failed due to incompetence.
Year by year, the CPI analysis adds more of these concerns. While national inflation increased by 0.69 % compared to March 2024, food prices fell by 5.12 %, which is driven by falling 30.18 % in destructive items. At first glance, this fall may be positive, but it reflects high fluctuations rather than stability-depressed prices on the crop of harvest, only after a few months for consumers suffering from shortage and hypertension costs.
Meanwhile, non -food category such as clothing (13.53 %), health (13.80 %) and education (11.94 %) faced double digits, which eliminated the domestic purchase power. In rural areas, food prices were significantly fluctuated and education costs increased by 25.88 %, even though the inflation rate is 0.02 %, which defects access to basic services.
The average inflation rate for July-March 2024-25 is 5.25 percent, with a record of 6.35 percent and 3.68 percent respectively in urban and rural areas. They hide the living reality of families amid collective prices. Domestic financing is fragile before a 15.04 % increase in clothing costs and a 14.53 % increase in health costs.
Recent Directors of the Minister’s Planning – Those who promote cold storage, vegetable processing and edible oil production are theoretically stable but there is no urgent need for implementation. Without an immediate crackdown on storage and pricing fixing, these long -term measures will work very little to overcome the current suffering.
Pakistan’s economic contradictions arise from a deep rule crisis. The federal government’s dependence on the provincial administration to control prices has failed due to incompetence and apathy. The result is an economy where the benefits of policy are achieved by the elite and is not shared by the public.
Recent GDP growth, though welcome, is neither comprehensive nor sustainable without resolving structural barriers: energy shortage, agricultural stagnation and industrial decline. Service -led rehabilitation, while impressive, cannot compensate for the harvesting of the productive sectors that mostly employ the workforce.
The path forward demands more than technical adjustments. This requires political will. Provincial governments must be held accountable for failures to monitor prices. Federal agencies should set up a real -time reporting system with automatic fines for violators. Investing in agricultural infrastructure is accelerated to prevent Cold Cold storage, processing unit and supply chain modern-day losses. Highly critical, disconnection between macroeconomic indicators and public welfare should be eliminated through target subsidy, wage protection and anti -profit anti -profit measures.
Pakistan stands at a crossroads. March 2025 CPI data and GDP data reveals the economy with electoral elasticity and systemic framework. The width between wholesale and retail prices speaks of a governance error where the success of the policy on paper translates to the earth’s difficulties.
Without the immediate reform of market regulation, agricultural production and industrial recovery, there will be a surgery to struggle to afford the need for millions of economic recovery. Half -hearted measures are over. Only a decisive process can restore public confidence and ensure that development benefits everyone, not just a privileged.
At the same time, the country has to resurrect its industrial base through targeted target subsidy for export -based sectors and energy prices. Special economic zone should be increased with 24/7 power supply to attract manufacturing investment. Ben, the Benazir Income Support Program, should be extended to a comprehensive social protection system that adjusts payments with inflation.
The State Bank of Pakistan will have to prepare inflation -related savings certificates to protect the power of citizens. Finally, a national citizen should be campaigning where citizens can report the increase in prices through the mobile app, with the guarantee of 48 hours of response by the district administration.
These measures, if implemented transparently, can break the cycle of policy failure and public suffering. By combining a strong accountability procedure and targeted subsidy to technical solutions, the nation can change its economic recovery into solid improvement in domestic welfare with statistics.
The government should also give priority to education and vocational training so that manpower can be equipped with the expertise in emerging industries, especially in renewable energy and technology. Government private partnerships should be encouraged to build affordable housing and improve urban infrastructure. A national nutrition program that targets children and pregnant women can help break the interfaith cycle of poverty. With coordinated efforts at all levels of government and society, the country can create a more flexible economy that works for all its people.
The author and lawyer of the Supreme Court, Dr. Ikramol Haq, is an affiliated teacher in the Lahore University of Management Sciences.
Abdul Rauf Shakuri is a corporate lawyer based in the United States.
