After three years of war, Trump hands Russian economy a lifeline

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London: Russia’s highly heat economy is in relation to serious cooling, because huge financial stimulus, rising interest rates, stubborn inflation and Western sanctions are suffering from their numbers, but after three years of war, Washington He has thrown Moscow a lifeline of just one life.

US President Donald Trump is pushing an immediate agreement to end the war in Ukraine, leaving Washington’s European allies and Ukraine out of early talks with Russia and blames Ukraine for Russia’s 2022 attacks Promoting by giving, which can also bring political gifts to Moscow. Benefits

Moscow faces two unwanted powers, according to Oleg Vegan, a former deputy chairman of Russia’s Central Bank. He said Russia could either stop military spending because it presses to gain territory in Ukraine, or maintains it and maintains it and paying prices for many years slow growth, high inflation and falling With standards, they all have political risks.

Although government expenses usually mobilize growth, non -generating expenditures on missiles at the cost of citizens’ sectors have created high heat to the extent that the rate of 21 % is slowing down corporate investment and Inflation cannot be eliminated.

“For economic reasons, Russia is interested in negotiating the diplomatic end of the conflict,” said Vegen. “(This) will refrain from further increasing the distribution of limited resources for non -productive purposes. This is the only way to avoid stagnation.

Although Russia is unlikely to reduce faster defense spending, which is one -third of all budget costs, the possibility of a deal should reduce other economic pressure, sanctions can be relieved and eventually Western firms Return

“Russian will be reluctant to stop spending overnight on weapons production, and they need to restore the military,” said Alexander Colnder, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

“But by allowing some soldiers to go, this will put a little pressure from the labor market.” The recruitment and migration of war has created a widespread labor shortage, which has reduced the record of Russian unemployment to less than 2.3 %.

Koliandra added that inflation pressure could also be reduced, as the possibility of peace could reduce the possibility of Washington implementing secondary sanctions on companies in countries like China, making imports more straightforward and therefore cheaper.

Natural slow behavior

Russian markets have already been promoted. On Friday, it came to a height of six months against the Rubel Dollar, and it was a pleasure to get rid of sanctions.

Russia’s economy has risen strongly since a small contraction in 2022, but officials expect the rate to decrease by 4.1 percent this year and the central bank is still sustainable to reduce rates. Don’t see

When rates were held at 21 % on February 14, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabulina said demanding demand is faster than production capacity, so natural slowdown in growth.

The bank’s challenge in finding a balance between increasing the economy and reducing inflation is complicated by huge financial stimulation. Russia’s fiscal deficit increased to 1.7 trillion rubles ($ 19.21 billion) in January alone, an increase of 14 times a year when the Moscow Front load 2025 costs.

Nabulina said, “… It is very important to us that the budget deficit … as the government is currently planning.” The Ministry of Finance, which expects a 1.2-trial ruble deficit for 2025 overall, revived its budget projects three times last year.

Carrots and sticks

War has gained economic benefits for some Russians, but there is trouble for others. For workers in the military -affiliated sectors, financial stimulation has increased wages rapidly, while other people in the civil sectors struggle with the increase in basic goods prices.

Some businesses have seized opportunities offered by reducing major changes in trade flow and competitiveness. For example, the revenue of the melon fashion group has increased permanently as it has promoted the demand for consumer demand.

The company told Reuters, and since 2023, the melon brands have expanded significantly in the last two years, and since 2023, the average size of its opening stores has doubled. But for many other people, high rates are a serious challenge. “At current loan rates, new projects for promotion are difficult to launch at current loan rates,” said Elena Bonderchuk, the founder of the warehouse developer Orientr.