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Despite recent signs of relief, the national economy remains on the brink of a deep crisis. After years of stagnation, the current GDP growth forecast of 3.5 percent for 2024 is being hailed as a success. Yet, this recovery lacks deliberate, well-crafted policy reforms. Instead, it appears to be a natural cyclical expansion of the economy after a prolonged recession.
With inflation still high and fiscal deficits looming, short-term and reactive measures risk missing the opportunity to address systemic challenges. Despite its promise, the Uran program exemplifies the disconnect between a grand vision and actionable strategies.
A closer sector-by-sector examination reveals glaring gaps that undermine the program’s potential. The digital sector, hailed as a driver of future growth, has faced significant hurdles. Freelancing, an important source of income for Pakistan’s youth, continues to be hampered by persistent internet disruptions and policy inconsistencies.
The lack of strong private data protection laws in Pakistan exposes digital businesses and freelancers to global compliance risks, especially when engaging with international clients. Furthermore, restrictive views on workforce mobility hinder the potential for remote and hybrid employment models that might otherwise attract foreign investment.
The export sector, another cornerstone of the uranium program, faces its own challenges. While the program targets exports of $60 billion by 2028, the ground reality is far less promising. Compliance with GSP+ requirements is becoming increasingly burdensome as inconsistent labor and environmental standards threaten the country’s preferential trade status with the EU.
Over-reliance on low-value textile exports, coupled with an absence of innovation and diversification, is limiting Pakistan’s competitiveness in global markets. Short-term adjustments such as currency devaluation may temporarily increase export earnings, but they fail to address these structural weaknesses.
The energy sector is a manifestation of Pakistan’s deep misery of mismanagement and incompetence. Revolving credit, which has now crossed Rs 2.8 trillion, is weighing on the sector. Policy measures are reactive at best. Tariff adjustments, often politically motivated, do little to address the underlying problems in generation, transmission and distribution.
Renewable energy, which can lower costs and diversify supply, receives only lukewarm support. In the absence of a coherent framework, Pakistan’s energy problems remain a perennial obstacle to industrial and economic development.
Climate and environmental challenges, especially smog in urban centers like Lahore, present another crisis that demands urgent attention. Air quality index levels in the region consistently rank among the worst globally, with Lahore often topping the charts for hazardous air.
Yet, government action has been limited to ad hoc measures, such as temporary closures of schools or industries, rather than systemic interventions such as controlling vehicle emissions or promoting cleaner industrial practices. The consequences are serious not only for public health but also for agricultural production and urban stability.
In the digital sector, a liberal approach to freelancers and a relaxation of restrictions will allow young people to integrate more effectively into the global digital economy. Stronger legislation to protect private data will increase trust and compliance.
To navigate these challenges and chart a sustainable path, Pakistan must pivot from short-term pragmatism to long-term structural reforms. Every sector needs focused, actionable strategies that go beyond surface-level adjustments.
In the digital sector, a liberal approach to freelancers and a relaxation of restrictions will allow young people to integrate more effectively into the global digital economy. Strong private data protection legislation based on international standards like GDPR will increase trust and compliance, making Pakistan an attractive destination for outsourcing and IT investment.
Uninterrupted Internet access should be considered a national priority. Persistent disruptions not only hurt business but also erode confidence in Pakistan’s digital infrastructure.
The export sector calls for a new conceptual approach to value creation. Compliance with GSP+ requirements through strict enforcement of labor and environmental standards should be prioritized. Beyond textiles, Pakistan should explore high-value export channels such as technology products, agro-processing and pharmaceuticals.
Tax incentives for exporters that invest in innovation and value addition can encourage a shift to higher-margin products. At the same time, trade agreements need to be revised to keep pace with changing global dynamics, ensuring continued market access.
Energy sector reforms, though complex, are indispensable for economic stability. Privatization of loss-making distribution companies, along with a transparent regulatory framework, can reduce inefficiencies. Adoption of renewable energy should be accelerated with clear incentives for solar, wind and hydropower projects.
Investments in energy storage technologies can complement these renewable sources, ensuring reliability. Importantly, the tariff structure should reflect true costs while introducing targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations to ensure affordability.
Environmental problems, especially urban smog, require an urgent and multifaceted response. A comprehensive national policy to tackle air pollution is long overdue. Measures such as stricter vehicle emission standards, subsidies for electric vehicles and a phased transition to renewable energy in industrial areas can significantly reduce pollution levels.
Urban green spaces should be expanded, and stringent penalties for burning parathas and industrial emissions need to be enforced. Climate resilience should also be incorporated into agricultural and urban planning, aligned with the broader goal of sustainability.
The Uranus program has the right vision, but vision alone is insufficient. Enforcement may end up being his Achilles heel. So cyclical economic relief can be relied upon instead of strategic intervention. The real test is not in announcing goals, but in addressing the systemic flaws that have historically thwarted progress.
Policymakers must make tough choices that will determine whether this moment of relief becomes the basis for sustainable development or another lost opportunity. The time for bold, transformative action is now. Anything less would be detrimental to the economy’s immense potential.
The author is an Associate Research Fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, heading its Center for Private Sector Engagement. He can be contacted at ahad@sdpi.org. The article does not necessarily represent the views of the organization.
